For Week 06 we will not be posting an EASE Downloadable “Excel” spreadsheet, because there are no Premier Division matches being played this weekend as a result of the large number of “World Cup” qualifying matches.
Please note too that we will not commence charging for our Services on 08 September as we had originally planned. This is because we have signed up with a new Merchant Account Provider (MAP), but the International Anti-Money Laundering Rules introduced last December mean we have to jump through hoops of fire to obtain clearance first, and it is all taking far longer than we had previously anticipated.
Anyway, our problems mean that our Clients gain, since they can continue to take advantage of utilising our Services without having to pay for them until such time as we announce otherwise. This applies to everyone, of course, even those who have already paid subscriptions.
In the meantime, anyone who wishes to take the trouble can still pay us through Moneybookers, although we recognise that it is not a painless way to do things. So, because of that, we have a special offer to all of those who choose to go that route before we have our new Merchant Account up-and-running: ALL CHARGES WILL BE HALF-PRICE!
This offer will cease immediately we can offer you an easier route to paying us, and our current expectations, having talked to the MAP man yesterday, are that it may only be a matter of days before we are given the green light.
If you are one of those who have already paid us through Moneybookers before receipt of this email, you will also benefit from having done so. Just check out your Account Details and you will see that we have doubled the number of weeks of Service still available to you! And, of course, we won’t start charging you for any Services until we start charging everyone else too!
You can also still try to win yourself some free weeks of Service for as long as we have not announced that we have commenced charging for providing our Services. You can do that either by helping us out in the testing of our Website or by highlighting problems or by making a useful suggestion about how you think we could improve our Services.
Simply hit the Test Findings or Suggestions link in the right-hand column under the “Service Improvements” box. And remember, you don’t have to find anything wrong with our Website to be eligible for inclusion in the Lucky Draw!
06 Sep 2008
As most of our Clients are by now well aware, we believe that Correct Scores Betting is the only way to make a killing with soccer betting, because 1X2 betting will only make the Bookies rich, not you.
What you may not be aware of is that we are currently working to refine our existing Hedge Betting score-line identification techniques, as well as develop an array of other software tools to help us get much closer to that winning 6-line combo, and to help us do it more often.
As part of our efforts we are, for example, analysing what happens to our Anticipated Score-Lines when our Program’s “Probability” for the win is high, medium or low. Currently, we display a table entitled the “Chances of Exact Score Possibilities For This Match”, which shows what score-lines are likely to occur most often, “on average”, compared to the particular Anticipated Score-Line predicted by our Program, but it does not take into account the WIN “Probability”.
However, our detailed analytical work has highlighted that if we show a high WIN “Probability”, then an Anticipated Score-Line of 2-1 is much more likely to come good than where the WIN “Probability” is low. So soon we will be displaying different tables for “Chances of Exact Score Possibilities” for the same Anticipated Score-Line, the relevant table to display being dependent on the value of the WIN “Probability”.
We are also in the throes of completing our Correct Score Hedge Betting Reliability Factor routine, which will identify for each team how reliable the Correct Score Hedge Betting lines are in respect to it. This will be combined with the relevant reliability factor for the opposing team to produce the specific match Correct Score “Hedge Betting Reliability Factor”, and we will also show the specific independent reliability factors for each of the 4 primary lines of Correct Score Hedge Betting for each of the two teams in each match.
If the above info can’t help you significantly improve your Correct Scores Hedge Betting, then nothing else in the world will! So keep your eyes peeled for our announcement that the new data is available on the Website!
28 Dec 2007
Judging from the very positive reaction of many of our Clients, we have obviously found exactly what appeals most to the majority of them – and that is Correct Scores Betting.
In hindsight it is not so surprising, because very few people have the great wads of money necessary to earn a sizeable sum from 1X2 betting, yet £1 on a successful 4-match Correct Scores bet would generally reward you with £1,296 minimum! Even with an average Short Odds payout as high as £0.40 winnings for every £1 laid out, you would need to stake £3,240 on singles Wins to achieve exactly the same return.
It is true that the risks with Correct Scores Betting are far higher, but if you win only once in a season and have to lay out £40 to do it (£1 per week), you would still be up by £1,256. Contrast that with the fact that a minimum of 25% of your 1X2 Wins bets are likely to disappoint you, so that after 40 weeks of straight Wins betting you will have laid out a total of £129,600 and gained less than £6,500 (if you are lucky), but could easily lose £2,500 or more.
Sure, the old heart would be pumping and the adrenalin rushing if you had £3,240 riding out there every week, but wouldn’t you rather have £3.24 risked on a possible win of £4,199? Of course you would!
One question you may have is: What are the chances of you winning that 4-match Correct Scores combo? The answer is (provided that you select the matches and the potential scores well) in the order of 1 in 2,500. But if, for example, you bet on all 4 matches being good for a 3-2 score-line, then the chances of that happening are more like 1 in 1,500,000 (reflected by the likely possible pay-out of over £1 million)!
So then, worthwhile Correct Scores Betting is all about setting your sights on something reasonable, and not about trying to find that elusive pot of gold at the end of the Never-Never Land rainbow. That is why we also emphasise that a certain amount of Hedge Betting is essential, and why we prefer to take 6 good quality matches and then play the double, treble and quadruple combinations from those. It has worked for us year after year, and there is no reason why it won’t continue to work in the future.
Having said that, there are weeks when we feel more confident, such as when there are many top quality matches to choose from because there are no distractions such as European Championship matches and the like and, of course, the opposite is true when there are such distractions. But all things considered, Correct Score Betting gives us the best returns in terms of thrills, enjoyment and monetary gains.
Our advice therefore remains unchanged: Correct Scores Betting is the only way to go!
03 Dec 2007
Depending on who is handing out the advice, you will get varying and sometimes opposite views as to what type of betting is the safest and/or will make you the most money. We belong to many soccer and betting forums, some of which have been operating for years, where discussions between members about these things go on all the time. What we find amusing is that the argument is never resolved, and so the cycle of questioning and re-appraisal repeatedly recommences, where the good advice is watered down by the nonsense that is trotted out from time to time (and more often than you may imagine).
The reason the argument stays open is because each individual has a different approach to and/or expectations about the outcome of his/her betting. For example, one person may be quite prepared to lose everything each week in an effort to make a killing, knowing full well the high risks involved, whereas another person may have a very conservative approach and not want to risk too much. It’s just not possible for the same advice to be applicable to both these people at the same time. Or is it?
If you look at things from the high risk-taker’s viewpoint, at first glance the matter may appear to be somewhat simpler. In fact it is simpler where we are dealing with the type of person who looks for 6 Correct Score calls of, say, the 1-0 variety, and then does them in all the possible permutations (there are 63 of them from the 6 singles to the lone sextuple). If £0.10 is placed on each bet then the total layout would be £6.30.
At Odds of, say, 6.00 for each of the correct calls, the potential gross return if all calls were actually to prove correct would be £11,764.80, and the net amount received (deducting the £6.30 stake) would be £11,758.50. So at risk is just £6.30 that could be increased by a factor of 1,866 if all goes well! Of course, the chance of getting all 6 calls correct is remote (about 1 in a million), but, interestingly, if only 3 calls prove correct (a chance of 1 in a thousand) the increase over the total stake would still be a factor of 4.43!
But what if the high risk-taker decided instead to select 6 “favourites” for outright wins betting, and then bet only on all the quadruples from among those 6? There would be 15 such match combinations, and to keep it simple for the purposes of this exercise let’s assume the Odds will be 1.35 for each individual match with a stake of £0.50 per quadruple bet. This means that the overall stake would be roughly the same as for the earlier Correct Scores betting example (£7.50 now against £6.30 before).
If only 4 Win calls are correct, then almost 80% of the stake would be lost, but if 5 calls are correct it would be extremely close to break-even. If 6 calls are correct, then the net return would be £37.90 (5 times the gross stake of £7.50). However, the reality is that there is only about a 40% chance of getting all 6 Win calls correct. Putting it another way, there is a 50-60% chance that this bet will make nothing at all or even lose a little, and around a 33% chance that the whole stake will be lost. On the 1 in 2.5 times when all 6 calls are correct, the amount then in hand would only be good enough to cover the next 6 weeks’ betting.
So, in short, with the “favourites” strategy outlined above our high risk-taker would probably lose over half the total staked amount over the course of the whole season, which is not much different from the “safe” Bettor betting on singles “favourites”. So to find out why the above strategy is so poor we have to look at the problem that occurs generally with “favourites” betting.
Essentially, we first need to take on board that if you had bet £10 last week at Odds of 1.10 on a “favourites” outright win but the result was a Draw, then you would have lost £10. We have chosen Odds of 1.10 because in theory those Odds represent “a dead cert”, although there is rarely any such thing with soccer betting, where there are 3 result possibilities (Home, Draw and Away).
If you now bet £10 this week on a similar bet and it is correct, then you will win back only £1 of the £10 you lost last week. To get back ALL the money you lost last week you would have to win for another 9 weeks in a row on top of this week’s win! Given that, overall, Draws are the result of more than 1 in 4 matches, there is virtually no chance you could ever recover your money, and so with 1X2 betting you will go on slowly losing more and more money each week. It is really that simple – 1X2 betting sucks!
We have produced many tables on our Website with the very specific aim of demonstrating that, even with a high success rate of predictions, it is impossible to get rich with 1X2 betting. Those tables have already been out there for a few weeks, and this is why we have now decided to give away all our 1X2 predictions COMPLETELY FREE-OF-CHARGE. However, we won’t be giving away the anticipated scores or the related backup data free-of-charge; that privileged information will be available only to those who pay for it.
All we will post as the “freebies” for the UK and European Major Divisions are our Program’s Probabilities for the Home, Draw and Away results (much like “Football Symphony” used to do a few years back, except that you won’t have to wait ages while the program chunters away in the background doing its business, because we put it all into easily accessible and readily available tables for you).
What we are suggesting is that, due to the high Over-Round (mark-up) employed by the Bookies, 1X2 betting has been holding out false hope for far too long to far too many people, and so now we are advocating Correct Scores betting and Under/Over betting as a way to spice things up, because it offers far more opportunity to make a killing. Full details of this plus how best to decide the amount to stake are now posted on the Website.
For those who think that they are doing the right thing by being cautious and sticking to 1X2 betting we can only say that our long experience in this business proves that overall you will keep on losing. But if that’s what you enjoy and feel most comfortable with, then please feel at liberty to access our “Free Predictions” for that purpose. However, what you could do – and without risking anything – is pretend play with Correct Scores and Under/Over betting to see what the difference to your bottom line would be if you followed our staking advice to use no more than you would usually lose in a season on 1X2 betting. You may then be sorely tempted to change your mind and go for a far more exciting ride than 1X2 betting could ever give you.
23 Oct 2007
One of the questions that keeps popping up nowadays in one guise or another is: “What do the providers of the Predict-A-Win Website believe is the greatest benefit to anyone utilising their Services?
The answer, quite simply, is that the consistency of our predictions can be relied upon – even where our Program appears to be getting it wrong!
Let me explain why this is true.
If you drive to work taking the same route each day and starting at the same time, then you will know, give or take a few minutes, just how long tomorrow’s drive to work will take you, no matter what the weather is like. This is because the repetition of your actions will have allowed you to build up a fairly reliable picture of how long the average journey to work takes you under various weather conditions.
But suppose, tomorrow, you have to call by an office in a completely different part of the city where you don’t often go in order to collect a report, yet still be at work not later than 45 minutes after your normal starting time. I am sure you would then be very uncertain as to just how much time you would need. In other words, you would have no reliable foundation on which to base any prediction as to the amount of time you would need (give or take an hour, maybe).
When it comes to predicting the result of next week’s soccer game, if you don’t have a systemised method of assessing the most likely results it would be pretty much like taking that drive into uncharted territory – you wouldn’t have a clue as to what the most likely outcome would be.
This is where our Services come out trumps, because we run the same prediction modules week-after-week throughout the season, and we faithfully record the results so that the reliability of the Website’s output for each type of prediction can be seen very clearly. If, for example, you see that our Program gets Long Shots Away Wins wrong more often than it gets it right, you can check to see if it is because more such matches come out as Draws or as Homes, thus allowing you to decide which alternative bet is best!
What’s more, we are continually adding to the Website reports so that you have access to an even wider range of data for analysis purposes.
This week, for example, we will be adding 3 new reports: (1) Double Chance Hit Rate, (2) Correct Scores Hit Rate and (3) Anticipated Score-Line Hit Rate. All these will help you tremendously, not only with clarifying the chances of the longer Odds calls coming good, but also with Correct Scores betting. The first of these reports is now ready for you to take a look at:
If there are any other reports that you would like us to produce, please don’t hesitate to drop us a line about them. We are always interested to hear about your needs, and you can be sure that if you would like something extra there are many others with the same idea. So please feel free to contact us with your request at:
05 Sep 2007
