5. Probabilities versus Reliabilities

The values of the respective Win Quotients (WQs) for any two teams playing each other at a specific point in time are what is used as the basis for determining the Probabilities for each of the possible match outcomes (i.e., the chances for a Home Win, an Away Win and a Draw). However, reliance on the Probabilities figures alone for determining the best matches to place bets on is most definitely inadvisable. This is primarily because the majority of the teams do not perform on a regular basis in line with the performance level observed over the period immediately prior to a match taking place. Our Program therefore records the details of what actually happened in each match, including (i) the actual match outcome compared to the expected match outcome and (ii) the actual goals for and against compared to the expectations of the goals outcome. These records are then used to compile a series of “Reliabilities” to aid in a ‘Selections Process’ that aims to weed out those matches where reliance on the high Probabilities evidenced could well be misleading.

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