5. Using the Program’s Prediction Algorithm

The WQ is used to determine whether or not a team is stronger or weaker than its opponent or if the two teams appear to be evenly matched, and it is also one of the principal elements used by our Program to determine whether a match will be a Home Win, an Away Win or a Draw (the Result Type).

The factors contributing to the value of the WQ to be employed in the Program’s prediction algorithm need to be carefully considered by the User, in order to ensure that the predictions made are sound. Such considerations must even extend to such issues as the points system to be employed for Wins and Draws, as that can make a significant difference to the match predictions.

There are in fact two sets of figures used in our Program’s match prediction algorithm in order to derive both the expected Result Type and the Anticipated Score-Line. The first set of figures is the Home venue and Away venue WQs for the two teams involved in each match, and the second set of figures is in respect of their average number of goals scored (the Scoring Abilities) and conceded (the Vulnerabilities). Since these two sets of figures are combined within a specially devised 4-way combined algorithm, the dilemma we could have is this:

1. If we pitch the value of the WQ components too high, it will automatically increase the number of goals for the stronger team and, conversely, reduce the number of goals for the weaker team. The stronger team is the one assessed to have the highest WQ. The correct balance of Home venue and Away venue WQs must therefore be employed in the algorithms.
2. The total number of goals scored/conceded (the SAs and VUs) and the difference between those two figures is ultimately what determines the Result Types achieved by a team. The number of points so derived from the overall impact of SAs/VUs determines the WQ values of a team at each venue.
3. It needs to be noted that the use of the WQs, SAs and VUs in the 4-way combination we employ has a certain ‘doubling up’ impact on each set of figures, and that effect needs to be countered in some way.

We ourselves mix a proportion of each team’s Home venue WQ with its Away venue WQ, in order to derive a WQ figure that is not too extreme. In addition to that, since the number of “goals for” and “goals against” equally heavily influence the number of “unrounded goals” predicted for each team, we also mix the proportions of the Scoring Ability and Vulnerability figures of the teams, using a set of variables that we have tried out and tested for ourselves over many years and that we have found to be the most effective.

On top of that, we have introduced a set of ‘Goal Adjustment Factors’ that can be employed to adjust the “goals for” and “goals against” figures that would otherwise be produced by the Program. So, all in all, there are many different ways built into the Program to adjust the impact of the 4-way combined prediction algorithm our Program uses. For a User to see the effects of any changes being contemplated for the prediction algorithm, our Program has in-built reports that will allow the User to test out the effects of modifying the various input factors ‘on the spot’ before having to re-run the whole prediction process for a past season.

The version of the Program all the Users are given access to will contain an exact copy of the Decision Factors Inputs that we ourselves employ to obtain the outputs that we post on our Soccer-Predictions.com website.

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